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Prediction Markets
This series explores prediction markets — systems where people trade based on future events, effectively producing aggregated forecasts of reality.
1 articles
The wisdom of crowds, and when it isn't
Who do you trust when no one knows? Galton's century-old experiment showed that the median of 787 ox-weight guesses landed within 1% of the truth. Surowiecki turned the idea into four conditions. Polymarket built a business on it. A 2026 study muddied the picture — 3% of traders move most of the price, not the crowd.